Most Important Match at French Open

The French Open men’s singles draw will play 127 matches over a 2 week period.  Watching them all from start to finish would take nearly 23 hours per day (127 matches * 2.5 hrs per match / 14 days).   Not up for that task?  Well, I’m providing a way to prioritize.

The most optimal way to prioritize the French Open is to rank the matches by their importance to predict the champion.  To do this comparison, I utilized the Riles Clubhouse French Open predictions which are based on players serve & return efficiencies.  For example, if you look at Djokovic’s round-by-round odds, his biggest hurdle is actually the quarterfinals and not the semifinals or championship round.  Additionally, since he has the highest chance to win the tournament, these round-by-round odds will be more important than those of Tomas Berdych.

Using this methodology, I can weigh the importance of every match to the prediction of the French Open championship.  These factors sum up to 100%, and therefore I can say a match has an x% impact on the outcome of the French Open championship.

The results are below along with the most likely matchup during that round.  Not surprisingly, the quarterfinal matchup that probably matches Djokovic against Nadal is by far the most important match of the French Open outweighing the second place match by over 2 times.

French Open Matchups

If you can watch only 1 French Open match, you should clear your schedule for the quarterfinal on June 3rd (Nadal’s 29th birthday) instead of the final on June 7th.  Djokovic/Nadal will not be the final, but it is the most important match of the French Open by far.


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