Comparisons, Ratings

Updated Men’s Tennis Ratings

The RilesClubhouse ratings have been updated through the results of the Monte Carlo Masters.  Novak Djokovic’s victory has continued to differentiate him as the clear #1.  The RilesClubhouse methodology and advantages are described here (http://wp.me/P4ETDC-W).

Updated Ratings 4-20-2015
Updated Ratings 4-20-2015

Since the ATP rankings are flawed, a comparison against the RilesClubhouse ratings will show who is overrated and underrated.

Comparison of Riles Clubhouse to ATP Rankings through April 20th, 2015
Comparison of Riles Clubhouse to ATP Rankings through April 20th, 2015

From the above figure, it is clear that although the 2 ranking systems track each other, there are clear differences.  Based on this comparison of the 2 ratings systems, the most over-ranked & under-ranked players are given below (subject to being in the Top 50 of either rating system).

Most Over-Ranked Players based on ATP Ranking System

  1. Pablo Cuevas             2.9x
  2. Fabio Fognini             2.3x
  3. Lukas Rosol                 2.2x
  4. Ivo Karlovic                 2.0x
  5. Ernests Gulbis            1.9x

Most Under-Ranked Players based on ATP Rankings System

  1. Andrey Kuznetsov   4.1x
  2. Nick Krygios                3.4x
  3. Radek Stepanek        3.0x
  4. Nicolas Almagro       2.6x
  5. Viktor Troicki             2.3x

Also, the RilesClubhouse rating system also calculates serve & return efficiencies.    Therefore we can calculate who is most likely to hold serve and break serve depending on who they played and how they performed.

Best Serve Efficiencies (value is percent of games expected to win while serving against an average ATP player)

  1. John Isner                    91.0%
  2. Roger Federer           90.4%
  3. Milos Raonic               89.9%
  4. Novak Djokovic        89.3%
  5. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 88.8%

Best Return Efficiencies (value is percent of games expected to win while returning against an average ATP player)

  1. Novak Djokovic         50.3%
  2. Rafael Nadal                47.3%
  3. David Ferrer                43.6%
  4. Andy Murray               42.4%
  5. Gilles Simon                 41.2%

The plot below shows both serve & return efficiencies vs ATP Ranking.  It makes sense that as both the serve and return efficiencies get better, so does the ATP Ranking.  However, it is interesting to see the big upswing in return efficiencies for those players ranked in the Top 10.  Seven of the top 10 in the ATP Rankings have a return efficiency rating in the Top 10, while only 4 of the top 10 have a serve efficiency in the Top 10.

Comparison of Serve & Return Efficiencies to ATP Ranking, updated April 20, 2015
Comparison of Serve & Return Efficiencies to ATP Ranking, updated April 20, 2015
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s