Expanded Tennis Ratings

I have expanded the Riles Clubhouse tennis rating system to now include a serve and return rating.  These ratings can be thought of as the serve and return efficiencies of a given player.  These ratings are calculated in a similar method to the Elo ratings except of looking at the W/L, it uses the percentage of service games won and percentage of return games won.  It uses similar logic to the Riles Clubhouse Elo-style ratings in that the impact of a given result is dependent on the level of the opponent.  Also, it continues to include the weighting based on the tournament level, Grand Slams (2000), ATP World Tour Finals (1500), ATP Masters 1000 (1000), ATP 500 Series (500), and ATP 250 Series (250).  Consequently a certain match outcome will have an 8x greater impact on the rankings if it occurs in a Grand Slam as opposed to an ATP 250 Series.

The actual Riles Clubhouse Serve & Return ratings are a number between 0 and 1.  It is defined as the odds that a given player will win a game against an average ATP tour level player while either serving or returning.

Updated Ratings 12-19-2014
Updated Ratings 12-19-2014

For example, Novak Djokovic has a Serve Rating of 0.893, which equates to a 89.3% chance of holding his serve against an average player.  Likewise, his return rating is 0.487 which means he has a 48.7% chance of breaking an average opponent’s serve.

What is really interesting, is that if you just look at the 2014 winners of either Grand Slams & Masters 1000 tournaments, their lowest serve rating is Marin Cilic at #16 & lowest return rating of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at #57.  The highest ranked players excel at both ends of the spectrum, even Nadal is excellent at holding his serve.



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