The end of the Men’s tennis season is upon us and it marks the time for the season-ending ATP World Tour Finals. The top 8 ranked available players (Nadal has withdrawn due to his appendicitis) qualify for the event. These 8 are split into 2 groups where they play round-robin within their respective groups. The top 2 players will emerge from each group and move to the semi-finals where the top player in each group will play the runner-up of other group.
The group pairings are shown below along with the corresponding Riles Clubhouse ranking.
Group A: Novak Djokovic (1), Stan Wawrinka (6), Marin Cilic (8), & Tomas Berdych(11)
Group B: Roger Federer (3), Kei Nishikori (4), Andy Murray (5), & Milos Raonic (7)
Just from the Riles Clubhouse ratings, it is clear that Djokovic has a favorable draw while Group B looks very competitive.
In order to predict the odds of any given player winning this tournament, I first utilize my Riles Clubhouse Ratings to predict the likelihood of each player winning each match in round-robin play. I simulated the round-robin play 1000 times and determined the winner of each group as well as the runner-up. The results are below for each group.
Group A is dominated by Djokovic who has a 80% chance of making it out of the group and into the semi-finals. The other spot from Group A looks like a very tight race between the remaining players.
Group B is much more competitive with Federer holding a slight edge over the others with a 61% chance of making it out of the group stage.
The figure below shows the resulting predictions based on the Riles Clubhouse rating system for the semi-finals & finals based on the above results of the group stage.
Based on this, it is clear that Djokovic should be considered the favorite with Federer as a distant second. It is interesting that Nishikori is the third most likely winner even without him winning a Masters 1000 or Grand Slam event. Should be an exciting week in London.