Tournament Predictions

ATP World Tour Finals Predictions

The end of the Men’s tennis season is upon us and it marks the time for the season-ending ATP World Tour Finals.  The top 8 ranked available players (Nadal has withdrawn due to his appendicitis) qualify for the event.  These 8 are split into 2 groups where they play round-robin within their respective groups.  The top 2 players will emerge from each group and move to the semi-finals where the top player in each group will play the runner-up of other group.

The group pairings are shown below along with the corresponding Riles Clubhouse ranking.

Group A: Novak Djokovic (1), Stan Wawrinka (6), Marin Cilic (8), & Tomas Berdych(11)

Group B: Roger Federer (3), Kei Nishikori (4), Andy Murray (5), & Milos Raonic (7)

Just from the Riles Clubhouse ratings, it is clear that Djokovic has a favorable draw while Group B looks very competitive.

In order to predict the odds of any given player winning this tournament, I first utilize my Riles Clubhouse Ratings to predict the likelihood of each player winning each match in round-robin play.  I simulated the round-robin play 1000 times and determined the winner of each group as well as the runner-up.  The results are below for each group.

ATP World Tour Finals Group A Predictions 11-6-2014
ATP World Tour Finals Group A Predictions 11-6-2014
ATP World Tour Finals Group B Predictions 11-6-2014
ATP World Tour Finals Group B Predictions 11-6-2014

Group A is dominated by Djokovic who has a 80% chance of making it out of the group and into the semi-finals.  The other spot from Group A looks like a very tight race between the remaining players.

Group B is much more competitive with Federer holding a slight edge over the others with a 61% chance of making it out of the group stage.

The figure below shows the resulting predictions based on the Riles Clubhouse rating system for the semi-finals & finals based on the above results of the group stage.

ATP World Tour Finals Predictions 11-6-2014
ATP World Tour Finals Predictions 11-6-2014

Based on this, it is clear that Djokovic should be considered the favorite with Federer as a distant second.  It is interesting that Nishikori is the third most likely winner even without him winning a Masters 1000 or Grand Slam event.  Should be an exciting week in London.

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