Below is the updated log5 predictions for round-by-round predictions for the French Open based on my clay specific Elo ratings. The biggest movers were Nadal and Ferrer with their chances of winning the French Open increasing by 5.5 & 3.3%, respectively due to the number of upsets that include Almagro, Haas, Dimitrov, & Wawrinka. Djokovic’s chances increased 2.8%, primarily from Nishikori’s loss.
So what top 20 seeds should be on upset alert for Round 2? Richard Gasquet (29.6% chance of losing in Round 2) & John Isner (28.7% chance of losing in Round 2) are the leading candidates. Also, Youhzny, Fognini, Murray and even Djokovic should be ready for tough matches.