Now that the field is set, I have my log5 predictions based on my clay-court specific Elo ratings. These calculations are my chance a player reaches a certain round based primarily on clay court performance of the past year and secondarily all matches over the past year. I have not added my opinion in these predictions, letting the data speak for itself.
Don’t take it that I am predicting Nadal to win, I am saying that there is a 64.7% chance he doesn’t. More detailed post-analysis to follow.