French Open Men’s Draw – Which Quarter is the Toughest

The French Open draw is out and the general media consensus is that

  1. Nadal has the toughest quarter
  2. Federer has the weakest quarter

But how does that really look when you dive into the data.  Using my clay-court specific Elo ratings, Nadal certainly has not drawn an favors, but the Djokovic quarter is as difficult.  Below is a list of the where the top 20 clay court rankings are located within the draw.  Note that the number in () is the clay court specific rating.

French Open Draw Comparison


Although Nadal certainly has a tough quarter, Djokovic’s quarter is also very top heavy with Nishikori, Tsonga, and Raonic … not to mention a potential matchup with Jeremy Chardy in the second round.  Nadal and Djokovic got the toughest quarters and that has nothing to do with them being in it!

However, Federer certainly has the easiest quarter with none of my top 15 clay court rated players in his section!  His draw has given him as a good chance to get to the semi-finals as he could ask for.

For those who look at the details, we are missing the 12th ranked clay court player from the draw … Juan Martin del Potro.   Recover soon!


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