Updated Men’s Tennis Ratings

I have always been troubled with the Emirates ATP Rankings system that only depends on the tournament level and how deep one progresses through it.  Is one player really better than another if he gets an easy draw and wins a couple matches while another draws Nadal or Djokovic and loses in the first round?

Instead, I have compiled an improved tennis rating system based on an Elo ranking methodology.  Players’ win-loss outcomes are scaled to tournament winner point values.  The output ranking value is equivalent to predicted winning percentage against an average player.

The top 50 Men’s tennis ratings for the last year through ATP Rome Masters 1000 are provided below.

ATP Ratings through May 18th, 2014
ATP Ratings through May 18th, 2014

We often hear about the big 4, but instead it is really the big 2 with Nadal and Djokovic far ahead of everyone else.  This is not much different than the current ATP rankings, but beyond that there are a number of differences.  Note that Andy Murray’s ATP ranking of 8 (due partially to a reduced number of events due to injury) is far too low, he actually is rated the 4th best player by my ratings.  Likewise, John Isner has an ATP ranking of 11 (vs. 18th in my ratings), but in my opinion he is over-ranked (probably from winning matches in tournaments with relatively lower competition).

So what does all this mean for the upcoming French Open? Up next will be my clay-court specific ratings and my predictions for the French Open based on the draw.


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